For further discussion see Section 4 below, which deals with the less developed countries. If technology is to be employed efficiently and widely, and, indeed, if its own progress is to be stimulated by such use, institutional and ideological adjustments must be made to effect the proper use of innovations generated by the advancing stock of human knowledge. 1, Part II, October 1969. Nor is the social technology that evolved in the developed countries likely to provide models of institutions or arrangements suitable to the diverse institutional and population-size backgrounds of many less developed countries. His analyses of both the cross-sectional data and trends over time revealed that, as countries got rich, the agricultural share of the labor force declined. Advancing technology is the permissive source of economic growth, but it is only a potential, a necessary condition, in itself not sufficient. But to whatever the struggle for political and social organization is a response, once it has been resolved, the results shape significantly the conditions under which economic growth can occur. The significant aspect here is that the surprises cannot be viewed as accidents: they are inherent in the process of technological (and social) innovation in that it contains an element of the unknown. Second, the increasingly national cast of organization in developed countries made for policies toward other parts of the world that, while introducing some modern economic and social elements, were, in many areas, clearly inhibiting. This continuity is important particularly when we find that, except for Japan and possibly Russia, all presently developed countries were well in advance of the rest of the world before their modern growth and industrialization began, enjoying a comparative advantage produced by pre-modern trends. 18, no. Find books The collection of the data involved efforts of Herculean proportions, and the analysis of the information in the tables was probing and insightful. The second monograph in the "Quantitative Methods" series was subtitled "Industrial Distribution of National Product and Labor Force." Or the mass application of a major invention may produce unexpected dis-economies of a scale that could hardly be foreseen in the early phases of its diffusion. 2. Nobel Media AB 2020. Suggested Citation. 3 Dec 2020. Yet in recent years there has been rapid accumulation of data for many less developed areas, other than those that, like Mainland China, view data as information useful to their enemies (external or internal) and are therefore either not revealed by government or possibly not even collected. The rather violent changes in these structures that occurred in those countries that have forged ahead with highly forced industrialization under Communist auspices, the pioneer entry going back over forty years (beginning with the first Five-year Plan in the U.S.S.R.), are conspicuous illustrations of the kind of social invention and innovation that may be involved. These comments should not be interpreted as denying the value of many transferable parts of modern technology; they are merely intended to stress the possible shortage of material and social tools specifically fitted to the different needs of the less developed countries. These classifications vary from time to time, and differ somewhat from those of other international agencies. Europe, the Americas, and Oceania), relating to 1850-1960, as compared with 1000-1850, suggests a. multiple of 4 or 5 to 1 (see Simon Kuznets, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread, Yale University Press, New Haven, Corm., 1966, Tables 2.1 and 2.2, pp. As early as 1949, Kuznets was one of a relatively few economists who thought that the Great Depression was the exception and that strong, long-term growth was the rule. In September 1943, when it was clear that peak wartime production goals had been attained and planning had turned to the transition back to a peacetime economy, Kuznets wrote to Wesley Mitchell, laying out his research plans for after his return to civilian life. 4. 5. This conclusion influenced a great number of scholars, for whom the correlation asserted by Kuznets became the criterion by which they judged their own assumptions and results. Preview. To be sure, their common failure to exploit the potential of modern economic growth means several specific common features: a low per capita product, a large share of agriculture or other extractive industries, a generally small scale of production. The latter can only be conjectured, but reasonable estimates for Western Europe over the long period from the early Middle Ages to the mid-nineteenth century suggest that the modern rate of growth is about ten times as high for product per capita (see Simon Kuznets, Economic Growth of Nations: Total Output and Production Structure, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971, pp. But the much augmented transportation and communication power of developed countries in the nineteenth century permitted a much greater and more direct political dominance over the colonies, the “opening up” of previously closed areas (such as Japan), and the “partition” of previously undivided areas (such as sub-Saharan Africa). If the rates of aggregate growth and the speed of structural transformation in the economic, institutional, and perhaps even in the ideological, framework are SO much higher than in the past as to represent a revolutionary acceleration, and if the various regions of the world are for the first time in history so closely interrelated as to be one, some new major growth source, some new epochal innovation, must have generated these radically different patterns.
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